Kilkenny weather guru explains how global warming is changing local weather

The dramatic weather of the past week has had everyone asking, “What is happening to our weather?”

Local Kilkenny weather guru, Niall Dollard of kilkennyweather.com, is better placed than most to answer that question having made his hobby of observing the weather into a major commitment in recent years. He has a professional weather station set up in his city centre back garden where he monitors the changing trends in Irish weather and feeds his observations about Kilkenny’s weather to Met Eireann. 

The October just ended was one of the wettest and mildest on record, as the real effects of global warming increasingly make their presence felt in our daily lives. Niall says that as the climate gets warmer, then there will inevitably be more moisture and therefore more rain.

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He observes that the trend in recent years is for drier summers and wetter autumns, explaining, “Our summers in the last decade or so have been trending drier and the autumn period, especially October now, is getting wetter.” 

In the past, December was the wettest month in the Irish climate calendar, now it’s October. However Niall also notes that the levels of rainfall we are experiencing this year are ahead of previously established projections. He notes, “The only worrying thing, I suppose is that it’s nearly happening a little quicker that we … would have  … this would have been predicted for the mid 21st century.”

The increased rainfall in Kilkenny recently is in line with mapping predictions for the South East that highlighted changing rainfall patterns in the region. 

Kilkenny experienced one of the highest rainfall levels ever in October. There were only three occasions when rainfall in Kilkenny in a month exceeded 200mm: the first was in August 1997, the second in  December 2015 (242mm) and the last in October 2022 (204mm). 

Niall notes that it has been a year for records with the UK experiencing the exceptionally high 40⁰ C heatwave in the summer and France setting records for October temperatures at  the end of the month. Bosnia reported a temperature of 29⁰ C in recent  days, which is exceptional for the autumn. 

He believes that it’s a ‘safe bet’ that 2022 will be the warmest year on record in Kilkenny and Ireland since records began. Increased sea temperatures in the autumn also draw on storms which explains the prevalence of windy and stormy conditions this October. 

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The issues facing us about rising sea and water levels are now terrifyingly real. Niall says that if or when the polar ice sheets start to melt, then coastal flooding will be dramatic and irreversible. Quite simply, "The sea isn’t going to go back." as there will be nowhere for all the melted ice to go.

He says, “Globally, we are not grappling with the issue quickly enough.” 

Recent revelations that there’s 'no credible pathway to 1.5C in place' by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) means that action needs to be escalated rapidly to contain global temperatures rising. 

At a personal level Niall observes people are trying to make changes in terms of adopting EVs, diet changes, alternative energy sources and better insulation for their homes, but it is really governments and national bodies that need to make the dramatic changes necessary to contain methane and CO2 emissions sufficiently to curtail global warming.

As for the immediate weather forecast, Niall says, “Friday should be a good day.” and next week will be better but that the general outlook remains unsettled. Westerly winds will push the very heavy rain that has been hovering over Ireland away but it will remain generally wet, windy and mild.